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MX0150

Making sustainable futures - An introduction to futures studies and scenario techniques

This is a course for you who want to work both with plausible and desirable futures. You will work hands-on with a range of foresight techniques, including driver mapping, scenario matrices, vision narratives, and backcasting. In addition, you get a solid knowledge base about key theories and concepts in futures studies.



Futures studies is an interdisciplinary field of study. Central to the field is the development and critical assessment of scenarios of plausible, probable, and desirable futures. In this introductory course we will focus on futures studies addressing the broad field of sustainable development.



Plausible futures are used to make society or a sector ‘future proofed’. This is done through identifying key uncertainties and their possible consequences, and then using this to inform planning and decision-making processes. Desirable futures develop visions of sustainable -futures for a specific community, city or sector. Working with desirable futures also includes identifying the incremental steps needed to achieve this vision, so called backcasting.



Throughout the course we will connect the futures studies methods to different sustainability challenges. We will use both established frameworks such as the planetary boundaries or the sustainable development goals (SDG:s), and open up for discussions on the normative and contested character of sustainability.

Information from the course leader

Dear all,

The course Making sustainable futures - An introduction to futures studies and scenario techniques from 29th of August to 1st of November, 2022.

This is a course designed to synthesize and discuss several futures studies and scenario techniques.

The course leaders are Cristián Alarcón and Ida Wallin and Linus Rosén based at the division of Rural Development at the Department of Urban and Rural Development of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala.

Once you have registered in Canvas, we will use Canvas as the main platform for the course

Take care and we look forward to meeting you shortly,

Cristian and Ida

Course evaluation

The course evaluation is now closed

MX0150-10129 - Course evaluation report

Once the evaluation is closed, the course coordinator and student representative have 1 month to draft their comments. The comments will be published in the evaluation report.

Additional course evaluations for MX0150

Academic year 2021/2022

Making sustainable futures - An introduction to futures studies and scenario techniques (MX0150-10331)

2021-08-30 - 2021-11-01

Academic year 2020/2021

Making sustainable futures - An introduction to futures studies and scenario techniques (MX0150-10302)

2020-08-31 - 2020-11-01

Syllabus and other information

Litterature list

1) Exploring Futures for Policymaking
**Länk: **https://english.wrr.nl/binaries/wrr-eng/documents/publications/2010/09/27/index/Exploring_Futures_for_Policymaking.pdf
**Författare: **Van Asselt, M. B. A., Faas, A., Molen, van der F., & Veenman, S. A. (2010).
**Kommentar: **This report provides a brief introduction to futures studies, and it uses in and for policy-making. The report includes some basic concepts and definitions. It also discusses a few common issues with the way futures studies are used. We suggest you read this report first, and then go into the rest of the literature.

2) The Futures Toolkit: Tools for strategic futures for policy-makers and analysts
**Länk: **https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/674209/futures-toolkit-edition-1.pdf
**Författare: **UK Government Offices of Science (2017)
**Kommentar: **This report comprises an overview of futures techniques and tools. The toolkit also includes quite detailed instructions on how to use some of the techniques.

3) Foresight Manual: Empowered Futures
**Länk: **https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/capacity-development/English/Singapore%20Centre/UNDP_ForesightManual_2018.pdf
**Författare: **UNDP GCPSE (2018)
**Kommentar: **This report provides an overview of futures studies tools and techniques. This report is an update to the 2015 Foresight Manual, putting tools and techniques into the context of the sustainable development goals and public service.

4) Strategic foresight primer
**Länk: **https://cor.europa.eu/Documents/Migrated/Events/EPSC_strategic_foresight_primer.pdf
**Författare: **Wilkinson / EPSC (2017)
**Kommentar: **This report includes an overview of futures studies tools and techniques, with some comparisons across them.

5) Futures Beyond GDP Growth: Final report from the research program “Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning.”
**Länk: **https://www.bortombnptillvaxt.se/download/18.14d7b12e16e3c5c3627a0c/1574265077015/Final%20report%20Beyond%20GDP%20growth.pdf
**Författare: **Hagbert, P., Finnveden, G., Fuehrer, P., Svenfelt, Å., Alfredsson, E., Aretun, Å., … Öhlund, E. (2019)
**Kommentar: **This report presents the main parts of the research program “Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning”. Read "Summary" and Chapters 1–3. Skim the rest of the report.

6) Carbon ruins: Engaging with post-fossil transitions through participatory world-building
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i2.3816
**Författare: **Stripple, J., Nikoleris, A., & Hildingsson, R. (2021)
**Kommentar: **This article presents the Carbon Ruins project. The Carbon Ruins is a fictitious exhibition, set in a medium-range future (2053) which displays objects that was part of the fossil fuel era, but that are no longer in production or use. The article is particularly interesting, I think, in providing an exemple of how one can use everyday objects to make scenarios more tangible and comprehensible, as well as making the process of futuring a bit more inclusive.

7) Mapping diverse visions of energy transitions: co-producing sociotechnical imaginaries.
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00702-y
**Författare: **Longhurst, N., & Chilvers, J. (2019)
**Kommentar: **This article provides an example on how one might engage in a critical examination of visions. In the article, a number of visions of energy transitions are examined using four dimensions of sociotechnical transformation: meanings, knowings, doings, and organisings.

8) Utopianism and the cultivation of possibilities: grassroots movements of hope
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-954X.2002.tb03585.x
**Författare: **Fournier, V. (2002)
**Kommentar: **This article introduces and discusses utopianism as an approach to foster hope and (grassroot) action in the present to the benefit of more sustainable and just futures.

9) Alternative futures for global biological invasions
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00963-6
**Författare: **Roura-Pascual, N., Leung, B., Rabitsch, W., Rutting, L., Vervoort, J., Bacher, S., … Essl, F. (2021)
**Kommentar: **This article uses a "two axes" scenario approach to explore potential drivers of biological invasion futures.

10) Manoa: The future is not binary
**Författare: **Schultz, W. (2015).
**Kommentar: **This article introduces the Manoa approach to develop scenarios for exploring eventualities. The Manoa approach was developed by Wendy Schultz in an attempt to provide an alternative to the "two axes" scenario matrix approach, while still providing a structured approach to scenario development. The article is provided via Canvas.

11) Unmasking scenario planning: The colonization of the future in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.07.003
**Författare: **Ossewaarde, M. (2017)
**Kommentar: **This article shows how also scenario processes intended to open up discussions can be framed by powerful actors, leading to a pre-empting of questions asked and answers arrived at and a maintained business-as-usual.

12) Developing a theory of plausibility in scenario building: Designing plausible scenarios.
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.03.002
**Författare: **Walton, S., O’Kane, P., & Ruwhiu, D. (2019)
**Kommentar: **This article discusses the difference between probability and plausibility, and suggests that plausibility is socially constructed. The article includes a case study in which the Delphi method is used.

13) Intersections of strategic planning and futures studies: methodological complementarities
**Länk: **https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/152-A05.pdf
**Författare: **Roney, C. W. (2010)

14) Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation
**Länk: **https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00148-4
**Författare: **Mendonça, S., Cunha, M. P., Kaivo-oja, J., & Ruff, F. (2004)

Course facts

The course is offered as an independent course: Yes Tuition fee: Tuition fee only for non-EU/EEA/Switzerland citizens: 19030 SEK Cycle: Master’s level (A1N)
Subject: Environmental Science Environmental science
Course code: MX0150 Application code: SLU-10129 Location: Uppsala Distance course: No Language: English Responsible department: Department of Urban and Rural Development Pace: 50%