Matteo Bruno Ricozzi, Agricultural, Food and Environmental Policy Analysis (AFEPA)
The central issue addressed in this research is whether European geographical indication (GI) viticultural systems can tackle climate change via initiating adaptive institutional change processes to relax the constraints imposed by GI's production standards. We developed a novel agent-based model (ABM) representing an abstract GI wine production system in the European Union (EU). Using illustrative data, our model allows testing different impact scenarios driven by climate change, spatial heterogeneity, and alternative institutional settings (i.e., voting mechanism).
We compared the average output of 100 simulations for each of 12 different factor combinations. The inclusion of endogenous institutional change led to considerable variations in all target variables, including the emergence of complex/chaotic behaviours. We showed how landscape heterogeneity has a twofold role in the climate resilience of the system. It increases individual adaptability but slows down collective adaptive capacity through institutional change. Considering different voting mechanisms did not produce any exciting result.
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